Dr Abubakar Akali ([email protected])
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) appears set for a resounding defeat in the coming 2023 gubernatorial elections in Sokoto state owing largely to a mix of very serious cracks within the ranks of the state chapter of the party and non-performance.
For the PDP in Sokoto state, it is now a matter of “when” not “if”. This is especially so when juxtaposed with the recent altercation between the current Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and his erstwhile political benefactor, former Governor of Sokoto state (1999-2007) Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa. It was widely anticipated that the alliance of convenience between the duo- current Governor Tambuwal and former Governor Bafarawa- will not stand the test of time just as political pundits believe sincerity of purpose is lacking in the PDP alliance involving the duo.
The altercation is coming at a time when the good people of Sokoto state are not happy with the PDP’s lackluster performance in the state over the last 5 and half years. The complaints are everywhere in the state and precipitated by a seeming lack of focus in governance: No developmental/infrastructural projects and a near-complete absence of social welfare. This has pushed our dear Sokoto state to the top echelon in the poverty index as the state easily won the gold medal in poverty. Figures released by the national bureau of statistics (NBS) ranked Sokoto as the poorest state in Nigeria with a poverty index of 87.73%.
Tambuwal vs Bafarawa
The latest skirmish between the current Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa led to a very weighty altercation and verbal exchange which took place in full public glare. Principally, the verbal exchange between the duo arose as a result of disagreement over the conduct of the recent PDP congresses to elect new officials to run the affairs of the party in Sokoto state. It was reported that party executives loyal to former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa were carefully schemed out by the Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s camp and none of Bafarawa’s loyalists was included in the newly elected party EXCOs at all levels.
This did not go down well with former Governor Bafarawa who characteristically confronted the current Governor Tambuwal to express his dissatisfaction and accused the Governor of using a ‘used and dumped’ method against him. Governor Tambuwal who also had already wanted to take his own pound of flesh, ceased the moment to outpour a long held stretch of venoms against former Governor Bafarawa and accused him of ‘insubordination’ by not supporting him (Tambuwal) at the last PDP presidential primaries in Port Harcourt.
It will be recalled that both the current Governor Aminu Tambuwal and former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa contested the PDP Presidential primaries held on 6th October 2018 in Port Harcourt. It was widely believed that former Governor Bafarawa pitched his tent with and supported the Wazirin Adamawa Atiku Abubakar who eventually won the election. Bafarawa’s action was deemed by the Tambuwal’s camp as ‘insubordination. The rest is history.
The altercation between Governor Tambuwal and Bafarawa is so tensed that Bafarawa directly accused Governor Tambuwal of orchestrating the exclusion of his loyalists from the PDP structure in Sokoto state all in a bid to clear the coast for his (Tambuwal’s) Presidential ambition come 2023. According to Bafarawa ‘All my agents that went round some of the venues of the congresses observed that delegates loyal to me were not allowed to participate in the exercise as they were removed, disqualified or denied access to the venues.
Bafarawa was rumoured to have instructed his son and a commissioner in the Tambuwal administration, Sagir Bafarawa to resign immediately and pave the way for him (Bafarawa) to deal with Governor Tambuwal politically. Of course, Bafarawa had called for cancellation of the state’s PDP congresses which he said didn’t follow due process and termed the congresses biased and undemocratic. Bafarawa also claimed that he was not involved in the consensus arrangement purportedly used by Tambuwal to conduct the PDP congresses which returned all Tambuwal loyalists into office.
The altercation between the two PDP leaders in Sokoto state raises many questions on the future of the party as it also points to the fact that the backbone of the PDP may have finally been broken in Sokoto state. If the latter happens to be the case, the PDP looks good on its way out of power in Sokoto state.
Keen watchers of events in Sokoto state believe that Governor Tambuwal, who obviously does not hold much water in grassroots politics in Sokoto state, had to rely on the support of the former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa and another well-grounded grassroots politician in Sokoto state, Umarun Kwabo AA, to win his slim victory at the 2019 gubernatorial election with 342 votes.
It is widely held that Governor Tambuwal’s victory with 342 votes in an election involving 1,067,994 votes on offer is too slim to be celebrated. The 342 margin of victory recorded by Governor Tambuwal in the 2019 elections is indeed the slimmest, littlest, merest and tiniest in the history of gubernatorial elections in Nigeria.
The two political allies -Former Governor Bafarawa and Umarun Kwabo AA- will obviously lay claim to making a huge impact in Governor Tambuwal’s slim victory in the 2019 elections. It is in this light that former Governor Bafarawa felt betrayed by Governor Tambuwal for scheming his loyalists out of the PDP structure in Sokoto state. Former Governor Bafarawa felt and rightly so, that he is just another victim of the ‘used and dumped’ policy of the PDP administration in Sokoto state.
Has the PDP Performed Well in Sokoto?
The cracked PDP in Sokoto state is fighting from all fronts amid very serious allegation of non-performance. There are very serious, even wild allegations that the Governor Aminu Tambuwal administration has not delivered the dividends of democracy to the good people of Sokoto state since it came into being in 2015. State indigenes are united in the conclusion that the PDP government in Sokoto state led by Governor Aminu Tambuwal lacks the ingenuity, inventiveness, resourcefulness, focus and capacity to lead the state out of the shackles of aggravated poverty, joblessness and infrastructural decay. If there is anything the PDP is good at in Sokoto state, it is in perfecting the art of winning elections by whatever means but not delivering the goodies of democracy to the people. The non-performance of the PDP in the state is so obvious that some parts of the state capital Sokoto do not have portable drinking water.
Of course electricity power is a luxury as it is nonexistent to many homes in the state capital Sokoto. Job creation programmes are not on the table as economic activities are at their lowest ebb. Analyst easily refer to the state as a ‘civil service state’ because trade and commerce are missing in action. Nothing new has been introduced towards building a sustainable economy in Sokoto state to create jobs and fight the alarming rate of poverty in the state. Everyone simply waits for the meagre salary at the end of the month. It is this non-performance that has built frustrations and blossomed into a full-blown crisis of the cracked-PDP in Sokoto state. It is the key reason why analysts believe that the APC is poised for a return to power in the state in 2023.
Will the two of Sokoto state’s political heavyweights- Attahiru Bafarawa and Ummarun Kwabo AA – return to the APC and work with the leader of the APC in the state, former Governor and current Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko in the 2023 gubernatorial elections in the state to change the political equation, uproot the PDP and get the APC back to power in Sokoto state?.
It is now about the need to save Sokoto state not party affiliation.
There is every hope that the political arithmetic in Sokoto state may change in 2023 and the three respected leaders -Bafarawa, Ummarun Kwabo and Wamakko- will yet again join forces to take over power from the PDP?
Only time will tell, but as William Clay, the former U.S congressman from Missouri said, “politics is a quite game, there are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.